Rorschach’s Oscar Winners Predictions

On this, Hollywood’s biggest night, I finally give you my predictions for who will win, who should win, and who might cause an upset in this year’s academy awards.  They are as follows.

Best Picture:

Will Win: Argo

Should Win: Django Unchained, Skyfall

Dark Horse: Lincoln

While I still find it hard to believe that Argo could win Best Picture without being nominated for Best Director, it still seems to be the current favorite after it’s performance at the Golden Globes, SAG awards, etc.  I know I’m a bit biased when it comes to Django Unchained, but Skyfall would be my second choice just because of how much of an accomplishment it was from all sides.  I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I have huge respect for films that can match scale and entertainment value with quality, and no film embodies that for 2012 quite like Skyfall does.  Lincoln also has a shot seeing as it is the current leader in number of nominations, but I’ll believe that when I see it.

Best Director:

Will Win: Steven Spielberg – Lincoln

Should Win: Ben Afleck – Argo, Tom Hooper – Les Miserables

Dark Horse: Michael Haneke – Amour

It’s hard to believe that it’s been over a decade and a half since Spielberg has won an Oscar for directing, but that is very likely to change tomorrow.  I really think he did a fabulous job with Lincoln, but the amount of usage of the Spielberg Formula would lead me to personally give the award to either Ben Afleck (Who I’ve really come to respect in his role behind the camera) or Tom Hooper, who’s bold decisions regarding live singing made Les Miserables into the best musical the Academy has had to work with since Chicago.  It’s entirely possible that the Academy shocks us again by picking one of its surprising additions to the category, Michael Haneke, but I personally don’t think that the politics of finally including a foreign film in the directing category would extend to an actual win for Amour.

Best Actor:

Will Win: Daniel Day Lewis – Lincoln

Should Win: Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook

Dark Horse: Nobody

Okay, so I love Daniel Day Lewis and in the all-but-assured event that he does bring home the big award for a record breaking third time, it will have been well earned.  That being said, I’m always one to root for the underdog and Bradley Cooper floored me in SLP.  He has completely established himself as a legitimate actor after years of toiling in Comedy character acting.

Best Actress:

Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook

Should Win: Naomi Watts – The Impossible

Dark Horse: Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty

Honestly, this one is pretty close to a toss up in terms of likelihood of winning and who actually deserves it.  Jennifer Lawrence seems to have the momentum with a Golden Globe and a SAG in the bag, but Jessica Chastain is by no means out of the running with a Golden Globe of her own to bring to the table.  As far as all-out emotional power is concerned though, I’ve got to give the “Should Win” to Ms. Watts for her heart-wrenching performance in The Impossible.  Honestly, it’s very close to a tie for me between the three of these women, but as long as

Best Supporting Actor:

Will Win: Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln

Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master

Dark Horse: Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained

While Waltz took home the Golden Globe, Tommy Boy still came away with the SAG award for the category and I’d be willing to tentatively bet on him for this one.  I’d also be surprised if the Academy gave Waltz another Oscar so soon after his 2009 win for Inglourious Basterds, but stranger things have happened.  While I absolutely loved both Waltz and Jones in their respective movies, they both played characters fairly similar to ones they’d played before, and my hat has go off to Hoffman for his work in The Master.  Hoffman never ceases to amaze me with the variety of characters he is capable of playing, and Lancaster Dodd certainly stands among his best in my eyes.

Best Supporting Actress:

Will Win: Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables

Should Win: Helen Hunt – The Sessions

Dark Horse:  Nobody

Aside form the Best Actor category, the Best Supporting Actress race is the closest to already decided as they come.  Hathaway has won the SAG award, the Golden Globe, and much more for her admittedly outstanding (if brief) role in Les Miserables, and while I am still a big fan of Hathaway (regardless of how many haters she has accumulated), I’d have to give my personal nod to Helen Hunt for her beautifully conflicted role in The Sessions.  

Best Original Screenplay:

Will Win: Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained

Should Win: Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained

Dark Horse: Mark Boal – Zero Dark Thirty

In a race that is remarkably close to the 2009 edition of this category, Tarantino and Boal seem to be the two big names facing off for the Original Writing Oscar.  While Boal took home the prize in 2009 for The Hurt Locker over Tarantino’s Inglourious Basterds (A choice which I maintain was a big mistake by The Academy, despite how much I loved The Hurt Locker) it’s starting to look like this just might be Tarantino’s big year after the Golden Globe he’s taken home for writing in Django Unchained.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Will Win: Argo

Should Win: The Perks of Being a Wallflower, Lincoln

Dark Horse: All of Them (But Particularly Silver Linings Playbook)

In my opinion, this is by far the strongest category the awards have chosen this year.  There is not a single one that could win and not have deserved it, but my money is still on Argo.  Call it a hunch, call it jumping on the bandwagon, but that’s my choice.  As far as who I think should win, I’d have to go with the not-even-nominated The Perks of Being a Wallflower, which is the only film I can think of off the top of my head to have been written and directed by the author of the original material.  I maintain that the overall lack of nominations for that film are the biggest expected snub at the Oscars this year.

For concision’s sake, I’ll only list my picks for the rest of the categories and not my justifications.

Best Cinematography:

Will Win: Life of Pi

Should Win: Skyfall, Django Unchained

Dark Horse: Lincoln

Best Animated Feature Film: 

Will Win: Wreck-It Ralph

Should Win: Wreck-It Ralph

Dark Horse: Brave

Best Costume Design:

Will Win: Anna Karenina

Should Win: Anna Karenina

Dark Horse: Les Miserables

Best Documentary Feature:

Will Win: The Invisible War

Should Win: The Invisible War

Dark Horse: Searching for Sugar Man

Best Documentary Short:

Will Win: Open Heart

Should Win: No Idea

Dark Horse: King’s Point

Best Film Editing:

Will Win: Argo

Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty

Dark Horse: Zero Dark Thirty

Best Foreign Language Film:

Will Win: Amour

Should Win: Amour

Dark Horse: Nothing

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

Will Win: Les Miserables

Should Win: Cloud Atlas

Dark Horse: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Best Original Score:

Will Win: Lincoln

Should Win: Skyfall

Dark Horse: Argo

Best Original Song:

Will Win: SkyfallSkyfall

Should Win: Who Did That To You – Django Unchained, Everybody Needs a Best Friend – Ted

Dark Horse: Suddenly – Les Miserables

Best Production Design:

Will Win: Les Miserables

Should Win: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Dark Horse: Anna Karenina

Best Animated Short:

Will Win: Paperman

Should Win: Paperman

Dark Horse: Fresh Guacamole

Best Live Action Short:

Will Win: Buzkashi Boys

Should Win: No Idea

Dark Horse: Asad

Best Sound Editing:

Will Win: Zero Dark Thirty

Should Win: Django Unchained, Skyfall

Dark Horse: Argo

Best Sound Mixing:

Will Win: Les Miserables

Should Win: Skyfall

Dark Horse: Skyfall

Best Visual Effects:

Will Win: Life of Pi

Should Win: Life of Pi, Prometheus

Dark Horse: Marvel’s The Avengers

Well, there you have them, my predictions for this year’s oscar winners, which I will follow for my participation in my Oscar Drinking Game posted earlier this week.  Here are just a few of my other bloggers’ picks in case you’re curious to see what the general consensus for each category is.

Lights, Camera, Reaction

Committed to Celluloid

Dan the Man Movie Reviews

The Daily Rich

The Focused Filmographer

The Movie Review Blog

Black Sheep Reviews

The Cinematic Katzenjammer

The Film Emporium

Marshall and the Movies

About r361n4

I'm a student at the University of Washington Majoring Business. I've always loved movies and my goal is to work on the financial side of the film industry. Until then though, I figure I'll spare my friends from my opinions and shout them from a digital mountaintop for anyone who's interested. After all, if a tree falls in a forest and nobody blogs about it, does it really happen?
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6 Responses to Rorschach’s Oscar Winners Predictions

  1. Marshall says:

    Thanks for the link love!

  2. Thanks for linking. I did fairly well with my predictions (18/24) but a friend beat me, She got 19!

  3. it is ALWAYS fun to see predictions and then to see them after the results! You had some good picks and made some bold predictions! nice.

    don’t worry, I got 16 right too. ha. And thanks for linking to my predictions. Appreciate you showing the love

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